The Last Click

Traffic-generating search is running out of time.

A countdown to my predicted date for the end of traffic-generating search: late 2028.

This is a public bet. I think organic search as we've known it is largely finished by late 2028, with non-AI results down to a low-single-digit share of how people actually find answers. I'll move this clock in the open as the signals move, and log every change below.

What would move this clock

• Legislation or litigation. A ruling or law that forces AI products to change how they use or show publisher content.
• AI in the device. Meaningful, default-on AI answers built into phones at the operating-system level.
• A real rival to Google. A non-Google answer engine — OpenAI or similar — reaching serious share, say 20% or more.
• A faster Google decline. A visible acceleration in Google's loss of search share.
• An anti-AI backlash. A public pushback against AI answers that sends people back to clicking links. This one could push the date later.

Changelog

• Jul 2026 — Clock set. Initial bet: traffic-generating search effectively over by late 2028.